(NEW YORK) — The Federal Reserve is set to announce its first interest rate decision since a global trade war touched off by President Donald Trump’s tariffs sent stocks reeling and triggered concern about a possible recession.
The move arrives less than two weeks after Fed Chair Jerome Powell said tariffs would likely raise prices, while voicing patience as Trump’s economic policies take shape.
“We are focused on parsing the signal from the noise as the situation evolves,” Powell told an economic forum in New York City. “We are not in a hurry.”
Investors expect the central bank to leave rates unchanged on Wednesday, according to the CME FedWatch Tool, a measure of market sentiment.
The Trump administration earlier this month slapped 25% tariffs on goods from Mexico and Canada, though the White House soon imposed a one-month delay for some of the tariffs. A fresh round of duties on Chinese goods doubled an initial set of tariffs placed on China a month prior.
Tariffs imposed on steel and aluminum last week triggered retaliatory tariffs from Canada and the European Union, adding to countermeasures already initiated by China.
Last week, the S&P 500 closed down more than 10% since a peak attained last month, meaning the decline officially qualified as a market correction. It marked the index’s first correction since October 2023. The Dow Jones Industrial Average suffered its worst one-week drop since March 2023.
By some key measures, the economy remains in solid shape, however. A recent jobs report showed steady hiring last month and a historically low unemployment rate. Inflation stands well below a peak attained in 2022, though price increases register nearly a percentage point higher than the Fed’s goal of 2%.
The Fed retreated in its fight against inflation over the final months of last year, lowering interest rates by a percentage point. Still, the Fed’s interest rate remains at a historically high level of between 4.25% and 4.5%.
Stretching back to his first term in office, Trump has repeatedly urged the Fed to lower interest rates.
During a virtual address to the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, in January, Trump called on the central bank to cut rates days before it was set to announce an interest rate decision.
At the ensuing meeting that month, the Fed decided to hold interest rates steady. Speaking at a press conference in Washington, D.C., after the announcement, Powell declined to comment about Trump’s call for lower interest rates, saying it would be “inappropriate” to respond.
“The public should be confident that we’ll continue to do our work as we always have,” Powell said, adding that the Fed would continue to “use our tools to achieve our goals.”
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