(WASHINGTON) — Tariffs on goods from Mexico and Canada that are set to take effect could hike the price of a gallon of gasoline for some drivers by as much as 70 cents and send grocery bills climbing, experts told ABC News.
The Trump administration this week reiterated plans to slap 25% tariffs on all products from Canada and Mexico on Feb. 1. Those countries make up two of the three largest U.S. trading partners, government data shows.
Tariffs of this magnitude would likely increase prices paid by U.S. shoppers, since importers typically pass along a share of the cost of those higher taxes to consumers, experts said. The policy could raise prices for an array of products ranging from tomatoes to tequila to auto parts.
“The scary thing is the list of products is very, very long,” said Jason Miller, a professor of supply-chain management at Michigan State University.
The price impact remains unclear, however, since businesses within the supply chain could opt to take on some or all of the tax burden, some experts added, noting the tariffs may not take effect at all since Trump has previously used them as a source of leverage in international negotiations.
In response to ABC News’ request for comment, a White House spokesperson touted Trump’s previous economic policies, including tariffs.
“In his first administration, President Trump instituted an America First economic agenda of tariffs, tax cuts, deregulation, and an unleashing of American energy that resulted in historic job, wage, and investment growth with no inflation. In his second administration, President Trump will again use tariffs to level the playing field and usher in a new era of growth and prosperity for American industry and workers,” White House spokesperson Kush Desai told ABC News.
Here’s what to know about which products could see price increases as result of the tariffs, according to experts:
Gas
Mexico and Canada account for 70% of U.S. crude oil imports, which make up a key input for the nation’s gasoline supply, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, a government agency.
Those imports come primarily from Canada, which sends crude oil to U.S. refineries built specifically to process the crude and redistribute it as car-ready gasoline, Timothy Fitzgerald, a professor of business economics at the University of Tennessee who studies the petroleum industry, told ABC News.
Gasoline that originates as Canadian crude reaches customers in the upper Midwest as well as some along the East and West coasts, Fitzgerald said. For those drivers, he added, prices could rise between 40 and 70 cents per gallon of gasoline.
“You could definitely be looking at 50 cent-a-gallon increases in a lot of parts of the country,” Fitzgerald added, noting that the effects would be limited to the regions that rely on imported crude.
The tariff-related price increase may combine with a seasonal price hike set to take effect within weeks, since demand for gas typically grows as travel picks up in the warmer spring weather, experts said.
That seasonal price impact could add another 30 cents per gallon, putting the total increase in gasoline prices at $1 per gallon if the tariffs remain in place at the onset of spring, Fitzgerald said.
Tomatoes and Avocados
The U.S. imported $38.5 billion in agricultural goods from Mexico in 2023, making it the top recipient of such products, U.S Department of Agriculture data showed. Those imports include more than $3 billion worth of fresh fruits and vegetables.
Mexican imports account for a large share of some fruits and vegetables routinely eaten by Americans.
Roughly 90% of avocados eaten in the U.S. last year originated in Mexico, USDA data showed. Other products with a high concentration of Mexican imports include tomatoes, cucumbers, bell peppers, jalapenos, limes and mangos, Miller said.
It would be difficult for the U.S. to replace those goods with domestic production or an alternative supplier, making it likely that prices would rise significantly if the tariffs take effect, he added.
“You’d certainly expect to see an impact on prices,” Miller said.
The U.S. also imports large quantities of beer, tequila and other alcoholic beverages from Mexico, experts said. In 2022, the U.S. imported about $26 billion worth of alcoholic drinks from Mexico, according to the USDA.
“Don’t forget all that beer we import from Mexico,” Miller said.
Cars and auto parts
Carmakers and consumers depend on the auto industry’s deep ties to Canada and Mexico, making tariffs a threat to prices, experts said.
Mexico and Canada make up the top two U.S. trading partners for both finished motor vehicles and car parts, according to a Cato Institute analysis of data from the U.S. International Trade Commission.
In 2023, Canada and Mexico accounted for nearly $120 billion worth of U.S. motor vehicle imports, which totaled about 47% of all such vehicles imported that year. Canada and Mexico made up nearly the same share of auto parts imports that year, the Cato Institute analysis showed.
“The operations of auto companies on both sides of the border will be hugely affected by these tariffs,” Robert Lawrence, a professor of trade and investment at Harvard University’s Kennedy School of Government, told ABC News.
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